制造业回流美国，没有想象中那么容易

美媒根据《美国制造业回流指数》笃定：美国将在2025年实现超84%的美国企业部分或者全部回流其制造业务。我个人认为，大选将至，美国现任总统又拿前任总统的业绩来画饼了。

美前总统为制造业回流做了啥？

美前总统上台后，致力于重振美国制造业，他提出了一系列的政策和计划。围绕着推动制造业回流，在贸易、税收、监管等方面进行调整，希望重新将具有竞争力的产业引回美国。

他采取各种手段保护本土生产者，比如惩罚中国进口货物加征关税，谈判美墨加北美自由贸易协定，以及退出跨太平洋伙伴关系等等。此类行动助力美国的制造业变得更具吸引力，并使本土公司不再仅仅只考虑成本优势去外包生产。

他枪枪打中我们中国的痛点，比如：禁止华为购买芯片、禁止华为使用安卓系统、导致华为在市场占有率短暂位列世界第一后，急剧下降。画饼让台积电等芯片代工企业赴美建厂，让世界所有芯片代工企业都捏在美国手里。禁止先进光刻机对华出口，导致中国芯片设计发展，止步3纳米。惩罚中国高校，让中国高端制造业人才无法出国留学和正常回流。

他提出减少企业税负、疏解运营及生产过程中的各种阻碍，同时使企业更容易获得财政资金支持。这不仅让美国企业将制造业回流国内，甚至还吸引了一部分中国企业赴美建厂。他提出政府采购美国优先，这又促使一部分产品的生产在美国形成完整供应链。

所谓制造业回流有局限性

美国的所谓制造业回流其实本身就是一张大饼，有很大的行业局限性。在美国制造业中，一些高技术含量或高附加值的产业相对容易回流，如航空、汽车、芯片、计算机等行业。这些行业具有技术密集性、创新能力强以及对资本、人才、技术等方面的需求大等特点。

而在一些劳动密集型的产业，例如轻工业、纺织业等，则面临着更大的困难。这是因为劳动密集型行业的生产成本过于依赖于廉价劳动力，如果要回流，成本将显著上升，难以维持当地竞争力。此外还需要考虑到供应链、设施建设等问题，以及长途跋涉可能引入风险和延迟等问题。

选民之所以支持制造业回流，是希望能够获得工作岗位，但是美国搞的所谓制造业回流，产生的岗位其实和大多数学历水平一般的美国人没有任何关系。

现任总统拿前总统的业绩来画饼

美国现任总统在制造业回流上几乎没做任何事，他采取的行动几乎没有任何的创见，就是躺在前任总统的业绩上。他的“1.9万亿美元的经济刺激计划”，其实就是因为出现通货紧缩，不得不向市场投放资金。因为通货紧缩，美国的就业岗位不仅没有增加，反而因为企业经营困难而有所减少。

他提议的“提高公司税率和加强打击假冒伪劣货物等措施“号称是保护本土制造业，其实就是一个口号，美国正常法制运行下，这些工作本来就要进行。但是，加税的做法，让很多赴美建设工厂的企业大呼上当。

所以，这个时候美媒说制造业回流取得成效，歌颂美现任总统的业绩，其实是前总统的。为了选票，拿前任的业绩来画饼和前任总统，继续竞争马上来临的选举，也是有点滑稽。

英文版："Over 80% of US manufacturing will return in three years?" The achievement of the former president is now being boasted about by the current president.

According to the "US Manufacturing Reshoring Index," U.S. media is convinced that over 84% of American companies will partially or fully reshore their manufacturing operations by 2025. Personally, I think that with the presidential election approaching, the current U.S. president is boasting about the achievements of the former president again.

What did the former U.S. president do for the reshoring of manufacturing?

After taking office, the former U.S. president was committed to revitalizing American manufacturing and proposed a series of policies and plans. He made adjustments in trade, taxation, regulation and other areas aimed at promoting reshoring of manufacturing, hoping to bring competitive industries back to the United States.

He took various measures to protect domestic producers, such as imposing tariffs on Chinese imports, negotiating the USMCA free trade agreement between the United States, Mexico, and Canada, and withdrawing from the Trans-Pacific Partnership. These actions helped to make American manufacturing more attractive and led domestic companies to no longer only consider cost advantages when outsourcing production.

He hit the pain points of China, such as prohibiting Huawei from purchasing chips and using the Android system, which caused Huawei's market share to decline rapidly after briefly ranking first in the world. He invited TSMC and other chip foundries to build factories in the United States and brought all chip foundries in the world under America's control. He prevented advanced lithography machines from being exported to China, causing China's chip design to stagnate at 3 nm. He punished Chinese universities, making it difficult for top-notch talent in China's high-end manufacturing industry to study abroad and return home normally.

He proposed reducing corporate tax burdens, eliminating various obstacles in the operation and production process, and making it easier for businesses to obtain financial support. This not only allowed American companies to reshore manufacturing domestically, but also attracted some Chinese companies to build factories in the United States. He proposed government procurement with "Buy American" priority, which promoted the formation of a complete supply chain for some products in the United States.

The so-called reshoring of manufacturing has limitations.

The so-called reshoring of manufacturing in the United States is actually a big pie with significant industry limitations. In the US manufacturing sector, some industries with high technology content or high added value are comparatively easy to reshore, such as aviation, automotive, semiconductor, computer and other industries. These industries have characteristics such as technology intensity, strong innovation ability, and large demand for capital, talent, technology, etc.

However, in some labor-intensive industries, such as light industry, textiles, they face greater difficulties. This is because the production cost of labor-intensive industries is too dependent on cheap labor. If they want to reshore, the cost will significantly increase, which will be difficult to maintain local competitiveness. In addition, supply chain, facility construction and other issues need to be considered, as well as risks and delays that may be introduced by long-distance transportation.

The reason why voters support reshoring of manufacturing is to obtain job opportunities, but the jobs created through the so-called reshoring of manufacturing in the United States actually have nothing to do with most average-educated Americans.

The current president is using the achievements of the former president to boast.

The current President of the United States has done almost nothing to bring back manufacturing, and his actions have been largely uncreative, relying on the achievements of the former president. His $1.9 trillion economic stimulus plan was simply a response to deflationary pressures that required market intervention. However, due to deflation, employment in the United States not only did not increase but actually decreased due to ongoing difficulties in business operations.

His proposal to "raise corporate tax rates and strengthen measures to combat counterfeit goods" is purportedly designed to protect domestic manufacturing, but is actually just a slogan. These are works that should have been carried out under normal legal procedures in the United States. However, the practice of raising taxes has left many enterprises that intended to build factories in America feeling deceived.

Therefore, when the American media praises the effectiveness of bringing back manufacturing, they are essentially singing the praises of the achievements of the former president, not the current one. Claiming credit for the achievements of the previous administration in order to win votes and compete in the upcoming election is somewhat ridiculous.